Water Wars: The Nile, Congo, and Who Controls Africa's Rivers

Water Wars: The Nile, Congo, and Who Controls Africa's Rivers

On September 9, 2025, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stood before a crowd at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and declared its completion "the greatest achievement in the history of the Black race."

A thousand kilometers downstream, Egypt watched with dread.

The GERD is now Africa's largest hydroelectric dam—5,150 megawatts of power generation that will transform Ethiopia's economy. But Egypt calls the dam an "existential threat" to its 110 million people, who depend almost entirely on the Nile for survival.

For over a decade, experts warned this dispute could trigger the world's first modern war over water.

It hasn't—yet.

But the Nile is just one front in Africa's emerging water conflicts. Across the continent, rivers that cross 60+ national boundaries are becoming flashpoints for tension. Colonial-era treaties that gave downstream nations permanent water rights are being challenged. Climate change is making water scarcer and more unpredictable.

And in the Congo Basin, the world's second-largest river system holds enough hydropower potential to electrify half of Africa—but remains largely untapped while 600 million Africans live without electricity.

This is the story of who controls Africa's water—and what happens when that control is contested.

The Numbers: Africa's Water Paradox

Abundance and Scarcity

Africa holds approximately 9% of the world's freshwater resources, with 17 major rivers, over 160 lakes, and vast aquifers holding more than 100 times the water stored in surface reservoirs.

Yet the continent faces catastrophic water insecurity:

The paradox explained: Six countries hold 54% of Africa's water supply. Meanwhile, 27 countries share just 7%. Distribution is the crisis, not total supply.

Transboundary Complexity

More than 60 rivers flow across national boundaries in Africa. International river basins cover over 60% of the continent's land area and account for 90% of surface water.

The governance gap: Of 106 transboundary aquifers mapped in Africa, interstate cooperation has been formalized for only seven.

The Nile: Africa's Most Dangerous River Dispute

Why the Nile Matters

The Nile flows 6,650 kilometers from the highlands of Ethiopia and the lakes of Central Africa to the Mediterranean Sea—the world's longest river (or second-longest, depending on measurement).

For Egypt, it's not just important. It's everything.

Egypt has built its entire civilization around the Nile for 5,000 years. When Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi says "all options are on the table" regarding the GERD, he means it.

The Colonial Treaties Ethiopia Never Signed

The current conflict is rooted in agreements Ethiopia was excluded from:

1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty

• Signed between Britain (colonial power) and Egypt

• Gave Egypt veto power over upstream water projects

• Ethiopia not consulted—it was never colonized

1959 Nile Waters Agreement

• Signed between Egypt and Sudan (newly independent)

• Allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt (66%)

• Allocated 18.5 billion cubic meters to Sudan (22%)

• Remaining 12% assumed lost to evaporation

• Ethiopia allocated: zero

• Ethiopia not consulted—again

For decades, Egypt used these treaties to block upstream development. When Ethiopian leader Mengistu Haile Mariam proposed hydroelectric dams in 1978, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat responded: "We are not going to wait to die of thirst in Egypt. We will go to Ethiopia and die there."

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Then came 2011. Egypt was consumed by the Arab Spring revolution. President Hosni Mubarak fell.

Ethiopia seized the moment.

GERD by the Numbers

The dam was inaugurated on September 9, 2025, with regional leaders including Kenya's President William Ruto and Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in attendance.

For Ethiopia, GERD represents:

• Doubling national electricity generation

• Power for 60% of Ethiopians who lack electricity

• Export revenue from selling power to neighbors

• National unity across 80+ ethnic groups

• Symbol of African self-determination

• Rejection of colonial-era water allocation

For Egypt, GERD represents:

• Potential 25% reduction in Nile flow

• Threat to food security

• Existential risk to 110 million people

• Violation of "historic rights"

• Upstream challenge to downstream hegemony

The Negotiation Failure

Over a decade of talks produced no binding agreement:

2015 Declaration of Principles (Khartoum)

• Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan signed

• Committed to cooperation

• No specifics on drought management or filling timeline

• Largely symbolic

2019-2021 Negotiations

• Collapsed over:

• Egypt demanding 15-21 year filling period

• Egypt wanting veto over drought-year releases

• Egypt seeking restrictions on future Ethiopian dams

• Ethiopia rejecting any limits on sovereignty

January 2024: Egypt officially withdrew from negotiations, declaring them "at a dead end."

July 2025: US President Trump announced American mediation efforts—but Ethiopia rejected his claim that the dam was "built with United States money" as "false and damaging."

The War That Hasn't Happened (Yet)

Despite military threats, bellicose rhetoric, and Egyptian politicians discussing strikes on GERD on live television, war hasn't broken out. Why?

1. Geography favors Ethiopia

• GERD sits deep inside Ethiopian territory

• Egyptian air strikes would have to cross Sudan

• Destroying the dam would unleash catastrophic flooding on Sudan

2. Sudan's position has shifted

• Secret 2022 agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia on GERD operations (revealed by Al Jazeera)

• Sudan's civil war (since April 2023) has collapsed its diplomatic capacity

• Sudan depends on Egypt militarily but recognizes GERD as inevitable

3. Egypt is adapting

• Massive investment in desalination (100+ plants operational or planned)

• Goal: 10 million cubic meters of desalinated water daily within six years

• Tacit acknowledgment that colonial-era water rights are "gone forever"

4. The dam is now operational

• Six of 13 turbines running as of early 2025

• 74 billion cubic meters of water already stored

• Destroying it would cause humanitarian catastrophe

What Happens Now?

The Nile dispute isn't resolved—it's frozen. Ethiopia won the first round by completing the dam without agreement. Egypt is building alternatives while maintaining rhetorical opposition.

But the underlying issues remain:

• No binding agreement on drought-year operations

• Climate change making flows more unpredictable

• October 2025 floods in Egypt/Sudan blamed (by Egypt) on GERD releases

• Ethiopia may build additional dams

The question isn't whether conflict will occur—it's whether cooperation can emerge before the next drought forces the issue.

The Congo: Africa's Sleeping Giant

While the Nile dominates headlines, the Congo River represents Africa's greatest untapped potential—and most consequential governance failure.

The Congo's Extraordinary Power

The Congo River at Inga Falls drops 97 meters in a series of rapids—creating the most concentrated hydropower site on Earth. If fully developed, Grand Inga alone could generate 40,000 MW—enough to power half of American homes.

The Grand Inga Project

Existing Infrastructure

• Inga I (1972): 351 MW capacity, operating at ~80%

• Inga II (1982): 1,424 MW capacity, operating at ~80%

• Both suffer from decades of neglect

The Grand Inga Vision

• Seven planned power stations at Inga Falls

• Inga III (first phase): 4,800-11,000 MW

• Full Grand Inga: Up to 42,000-70,000 MW

• Total cost estimates: $80-100 billion

• Would be world's largest power station

2024-2025 Developments

• World Bank returned after 2016 withdrawal

• June 2025: $250 million approved (first phase of $1 billion commitment)

• General Electric signed $1 billion deal to rehabilitate Inga I/II

• SADC ministers advancing Grand Inga and Congo River Water Transfer plans

• Countries expressing purchase interest: South Africa (5,000 MW), Nigeria (3,000 MW), Angola (5,000 MW)

Why Grand Inga Hasn't Happened

Despite recognition since the 1920s of the Congo's "more than one-fourth of the world's potential water power," development has stalled repeatedly:

1. Governance and Corruption

• DRC consistently ranks among world's most corrupt nations

• Previous Inga dams contributed to crippling national debt

• Lack of transparency in contracting

2. Who Benefits?

• Original plans sent most power to mining companies and South Africa

• Only 1 in 5 Congolese have electricity access

• 73.5% of DRC population lives on less than $2.15/day

• Will Grand Inga serve Congolese or extract value like other resources?

3. Technical and Financial Challenges

• $80+ billion cost in one of world's poorest countries

• Transmission infrastructure to reach markets

• Multiple partner withdrawals (China, Spain's ACS Group)

4. Environmental Concerns

• Displacement of communities (Inga I/II displaced thousands, inadequate compensation)

• Impact on Congo River ecosystem

• Effects on "Congo Plume" (freshwater discharge affecting Atlantic)

The Sovereignty Question

Grand Inga represents a fundamental test: Can Africa develop its resources for Africans?

The project could:

• Provide clean energy to hundreds of millions

• Enable continental energy integration

• Power African industrialization

• Generate export revenue for DRC

Or it could:

• Add to DRC's debt burden

• Primarily serve foreign mining interests

• Displace communities without adequate compensation

• Export African resources with minimal local benefit

President Tshisekedi has framed it clearly: "Grand Inga is not just a dam, it is the future of Africa."

The question is whose future.

Beyond Nile and Congo: Other Flashpoints

Lake Chad: The Vanishing Basin

Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s—from 25,000 square kilometers to around 2,500 today.

Water scarcity in the Lake Chad Basin has been directly connected to conflict, displacement, and extremist recruitment.

The Zambezi: Eight-Country Complexity

The Zambezi River flows through eight countries: Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

• Kariba Dam (Zambia-Zimbabwe border): Requires bilateral cooperation

• Zambezi River Authority: Manages Kariba, but only covers two countries

• ZAMCOM: Newer basin-wide organization, but limited authority

• Climate impacts: Severe droughts affecting hydropower generation

The Niger: Nine Countries, One River

The Niger River passes through nine countries, with the Niger Basin Authority attempting coordination.

Key tensions:

• Upstream dams in Guinea affecting downstream flows

• Nigeria's heavy water use for agriculture

• Connection to Lake Chad through tributaries

The Senegal: A Relative Success Story

The Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Sénégal (OMVS) is often cited as Africa's most successful river basin organization.

• Founded 1972 by Mali, Mauritania, Senegal

• Guinea joined 2006

• Joint dam ownership and management

• Cost-sharing formula

• Regular dialogue mechanisms

Why it works: Smaller number of countries, shared colonial history, and genuine commitment to cooperation.

Colonial Water Law vs. African Development

The Legal Framework Problem

International water law offers two competing principles:

1. Absolute Territorial Sovereignty (Harmon Doctrine)

• Each country can do whatever it wants with water in its territory

• Favored by upstream countries (Ethiopia)

2. Absolute Territorial Integrity

• Downstream countries have rights to continued flow

• Favored by downstream countries (Egypt)

3. Equitable and Reasonable Utilization

• The compromise in the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention

• Balances all users' needs

• But who defines "equitable"?

The African Challenge

Colonial-era treaties consistently:

• Favored colonial interests

• Excluded countries that weren't colonized (Ethiopia)

• Gave disproportionate rights to downstream nations

• Ignored upstream development needs

The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) attempted to create a new Nile governance structure, but:

• Only signed by 6 of 11 countries

• Ratified by only 4

• Egypt and Sudan refused to participate

• Far from operational

Climate Change Multiplier

Climate projections for Africa are alarming:

• 10-20% rainfall reduction in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 (IPCC)

• More intense droughts and floods

• Shifting rainfall patterns

• Rising temperatures increasing evaporation

• Groundwater depletion accelerating

A 2024 study projected that if nothing changes, 920 million people will live in high conflict-risk transboundary basins by 2050.

In Africa specifically: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, Mozambique, Malawi, Benin, and Togo face the highest risks.

Neo-Colonial Water Control: How Outsiders Still Dominate African Water

Colonial flags came down decades ago. But control over African water never fully transferred to African hands. Today, a web of treaties, corporations, debt structures, and climate impacts keeps African water resources under external influence.

1. Colonial Treaties That Refuse to Die

The 1929 and 1959 Nile treaties weren't ancient history until Ethiopia built GERD. Egypt actively cited these colonial agreements in 21st-century negotiations, demanding that Ethiopia respect "historic rights" established when Britain controlled the region.

These aren't isolated cases:

The legal architecture of African water governance was built by colonizers, for colonizers. It persists because powerful downstream nations (often former colonial favorites) benefit from it.

2. Water Grabs: The Hidden Side of Land Deals

Remember the land grabs from Day 15? They're also water grabs.

When Saudi Arabia leases 10,000 hectares in Ethiopia to grow food for export, they're not just taking land—they're taking the water embedded in those crops. This is called "virtual water" extraction.

The pattern:

• Gulf states depleted their own aquifers through unsustainable agriculture

• Now they lease African land to grow water-intensive crops

• Crops are exported, taking embedded water with them

• African communities lose access to water for their own food production

Examples:

• Saudi Star (Ethiopia): Growing rice in water-scarce Gambella region for Saudi food security

• UAE in Angola: 9,300 football fields of land for rice and avocados—major water extraction

• Alfalfa farming across East Africa: Feeds Gulf livestock while African herders face drought

This is water colonialism with extra steps—instead of piping water out, they export it inside crops.

3. Forced Privatization: European Companies Control African Taps

Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) imposed by the IMF and World Bank in the 1980s-90s required African countries to privatize water utilities as a condition of loans.

The result: European multinationals took over water systems across Africa.

What happened after privatization:

• Water prices increased (often dramatically)

• Unprofitable rural areas neglected

• Profits extracted to European headquarters

• Communities that couldn't pay were disconnected

• When systems failed, African governments had to bail them out

Case Study: Tanzania

In 2005, Tanzania cancelled its contract with Biwater (UK) after the company failed to deliver promised improvements while water access actually declined. Biwater sued Tanzania at the World Bank's investment tribunal for $20 million in "lost profits."

The message: African governments can be punished for trying to reclaim control of their water.

4. Bottled Water Extraction

Multinational corporations extract African groundwater, bottle it, and sell it—sometimes to the same communities whose aquifers they're depleting.

The business model:

• Obtain extraction rights (often at minimal cost)

• Pump groundwater into plastic bottles

• Sell at prices ordinary Africans can't afford

• Export profits; leave depleted aquifers

While 387 million Africans lack safe drinking water, corporations profit from extracting and selling the water that remains.

5. Infrastructure Debt: Who Owns African Water Projects?

Africa needs massive water infrastructure investment. But the funding model creates new dependencies.

Grand Inga Example:

• Estimated cost: $80-100 billion

• DRC's entire GDP: ~$65 billion

• Result: Impossible without foreign financing

Who provides the money:

• World Bank (with conditions on governance, privatization)

• Chinese banks (with tied contracts for Chinese companies)

• European development banks (with procurement requirements)

• Private investors (expecting returns)

The debt trap:

• Inga I and II (1970s-80s) contributed to DRC's crippling debt burden

• Debt payments diverted funds from other development

• When DRC couldn't pay, creditors gained leverage

• Infrastructure built with loans serves creditor interests first

Current structure for Inga III:

• World Bank: $1 billion committed

• GE (American): $1 billion deal

• Power purchase agreements: South Africa (5,000 MW), Nigeria (3,000 MW)

How much serves Congolese who lack electricity? That depends on who controls the terms.

6. Climate Colonialism: They Cause It, We Pay

Africa contributes approximately 3-4% of global carbon emissions.

Africa suffers some of the worst climate impacts on water:

• 10-20% rainfall reduction projected by 2050

• Accelerating desertification in the Sahel

• More frequent droughts in East Africa

• Lake Chad shrunk 90%

• Glacier loss on Mount Kilimanjaro

The industrialized nations that caused climate change have not adequately compensated Africa for the water crisis they created. Climate finance promises remain largely unfulfilled.

This is environmental colonialism: extract resources for centuries, destabilize the climate, and leave former colonies to suffer the consequences.

7. Data Colonialism: Who Knows African Water?

You can't manage what you can't measure. And much of Africa's hydrological data is:

• Collected by foreign researchers and institutions

• Stored in databases outside Africa

• Published in journals Africans can't afford to access

• Used to inform decisions made elsewhere

Many African countries lack basic monitoring infrastructure:

• River flow gauges

• Groundwater level measurements

• Rainfall stations

• Water quality testing

When African governments need data to negotiate water treaties, they often must rely on information controlled by foreign institutions—or by the countries they're negotiating against.

Breaking Free: What Water Sovereignty Requires

True African control over African water requires:

1. Treaty Renegotiation

• Reject colonial-era agreements wholesale

• Establish new frameworks with all basin countries

• Base allocations on current needs, not historical privilege

2. Public Water Systems

• Reverse privatization where it failed

• Invest in publicly owned infrastructure

• Ensure water access as a right, not a commodity

3. Regulate Foreign Land/Water Deals

• Require water impact assessments for all agricultural leases

• Cap virtual water exports

• Prioritize domestic food and water security

4. Demand Climate Reparations

• Industrialized nations must fund African water adaptation

• Loss and damage payments for climate-induced water crises

• Technology transfer for desalination and efficiency

5. Build African Data Capacity

• Invest in monitoring infrastructure

• Train African hydrologists

• Keep data in African institutions

• Open access for African researchers

6. Finance Infrastructure Differently

• Prioritize grants over loans

• Ensure African ownership of completed projects

• Require local benefit provisions

• Reject debt-trap financing

Water is life. And as long as others control African water—through treaties, corporations, debt, or climate destruction—Africa cannot be truly sovereign.

Water as Weapon, Water as Peace

The Conflict Scenario

Water disputes can escalate through:

1. Unilateral infrastructure development (Ethiopia's GERD)

2. Flow manipulation during droughts

3. Pollution affecting downstream users

4. Refugee flows from water-scarce regions

5. Agricultural collapse triggering instability

The Ethiopia-Egypt dispute has already contributed to a regional realignment:

• Egypt-Somalia security pact (partly response to Ethiopia-Somaliland deal)

• Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia axis formation

• Arab League supporting Egypt's position

• African Union backing Ethiopia's development rights

The Cooperation Scenario

Water can also drive peace:

• Shared infrastructure investment

• Joint management institutions

• Data sharing on flows and usage

• Coordinated drought response

• Economic integration through power trade

The Senegal Basin shows it's possible. The Mekong River Commission (Asia) has developed comprehensive tools for dam impact assessment. The Rhine (Europe) went from "sewer of Europe" to cooperative management model.

What Africa Needs

1. Reject Colonial Treaties

The 1929 and 1959 Nile agreements were signed without Africa's largest contributor to Nile flow. They have no moral legitimacy. New frameworks must:

• Include all basin countries

• Reflect current and future needs

• Account for climate change

• Balance development and conservation

2. Strengthen Basin Organizations

Africa has river basin organizations, but most lack:

• Binding authority

• Adequate funding

• Technical capacity

• Political support

The OMVS model—joint ownership, cost-sharing, regular dialogue—should be replicated.

3. Develop Infrastructure for Africans

Grand Inga and other major projects must primarily serve African populations, not:

• Foreign mining companies

• Export markets at the expense of local access

• Debt accumulation for future generations

DRC keeping 6,000 MW domestically (recent announcement) is the right direction.

4. Invest in Data and Transparency

Many African countries lack basic hydrological data. Without knowing how much water flows where, cooperation is impossible.

Investments needed in:

• Monitoring stations

• Data sharing protocols

• Climate modeling

• Groundwater assessment

5. Prepare for Climate Impacts

Africa contributes least to climate change but suffers most. Water infrastructure must be:

• Climate-resilient

• Flexible for variable flows

• Integrated with renewable energy

• Planned for worst-case scenarios

Frequently Asked Questions

Could Ethiopia and Egypt actually go to war over the Nile?

The risk has decreased since GERD's completion—it's now operational with 74 billion cubic meters stored, making military destruction catastrophic for Sudan and potentially pointless for Egypt. However, tensions remain high. A severe drought that forces difficult choices about water releases could reignite crisis. Egypt is investing heavily in desalination as a hedge, tacitly acknowledging that colonial-era water rights cannot be enforced.

What is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and why is it controversial?

GERD is Africa's largest hydroelectric dam (5,150 MW), built on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at a cost of ~$5 billion, funded entirely by Ethiopian citizens through bonds and donations. It's controversial because Egypt depends on the Nile for 97% of its renewable water, and no binding agreement exists on how Ethiopia will operate the dam during droughts. Ethiopia views it as sovereign development right; Egypt calls it an existential threat.

How much of Africa's water is shared between countries?

Approximately 60% of Africa's land area lies within international river basins, and 90% of surface water crosses national boundaries. More than 60 rivers flow across borders, with major basins (Nile, Congo, Niger, Zambezi) involving 8-11 countries each. Of 106 mapped transboundary aquifers, only 7 have formal cooperation agreements.

What is Grand Inga and why hasn't it been built?

Grand Inga is a proposed series of hydroelectric dams on the Congo River that could generate 40,000-70,000 MW—the world's largest power station. Despite recognition of its potential since the 1920s, development has stalled due to: DRC's governance challenges, estimated $80-100 billion cost, questions about who benefits, environmental concerns, and partner withdrawals. The World Bank returned in 2024-2025 with renewed commitment.

How does water scarcity affect African development?

Water scarcity costs Africa $30-60 billion annually in lost agricultural GDP. Over 300 million Africans lack safe drinking water. Women and girls spend billions of hours yearly collecting water, limiting education and economic participation. Waterborne diseases kill hundreds of thousands annually. Water disputes fuel conflicts from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa.

Do former colonial powers still control African water?

Yes, in multiple ways. Colonial-era treaties (like the 1929 and 1959 Nile agreements) still govern water allocation, favoring former colonial interests. Water privatization pushed by IMF/World Bank put European companies like Veolia and Suez in control of African water systems. Foreign land grabs for water-intensive crops extract "virtual water" from Africa—when Saudi Arabia grows alfalfa in Ethiopia for Gulf livestock, they're exporting African water embedded in crops. Infrastructure financing creates debt dependencies where African countries owe foreign creditors for water projects. And climate change caused primarily by industrialized nations devastates African water supplies while those responsible provide inadequate compensation.

The Bottom Line

Africa's rivers are its greatest natural endowment for development. The Congo alone could power half the continent. The Nile sustains hundreds of millions. The Niger, Zambezi, and others provide water for agriculture, drinking, and industry across borders.

But colonial treaties gave control to the wrong countries. Climate change is making water scarcer. And competing claims are intensifying.

The choice is clear:

Conflict path: Countries pursue unilateral development, withhold water during crises, and use rivers as weapons. Result: instability, humanitarian disasters, and unrealized potential.

Cooperation path: African nations reject colonial frameworks, build genuine basin organizations, develop infrastructure for African benefit, and manage shared resources together. Result: energy access, food security, and continental integration.

The Nile dispute shows what happens without cooperation—a $5 billion dam built over a decade of failed negotiations, with no agreement on drought operations, and two nations in cold confrontation.

Grand Inga shows what's possible with vision—enough power to transform a continent, if governance and benefit-sharing can be resolved.

Africa's water future is not determined by hydrology.

It's determined by politics.